Alan Krigman – Gambling Columnist
Alan Krigman – Gambling Columnist

The Man Who Made Mathematics Accessible

In the glittering world of casino gambling, where superstition often trumps logic and hope routinely defeats reason, one voice stood out for decades by patiently, methodically explaining the mathematical truths behind the games. Alan Krigman was that rare breed of gambling writer who could make probability theory feel less like a university lecture and more like a conversation with a knowledgeable mate at the pub.

For years, Krigman's weekly syndicated newspaper column appeared across the United States and in online publications, demystifying the numbers behind casino games for casual players who just wanted to understand what they were up against. He wasn't selling systems or promising riches—he was simply explaining reality in terms anyone could grasp.

The Voice of Reason in a World of Wishful Thinking

Alan Krigman was more than just a gambling columnist; he was the editor and publisher of Winning Ways, a monthly newsletter dedicated to casino aficionados who wanted to approach gambling with eyes wide open. Over his career, he penned more than 944 columns, articles, and letters, all focused on one central mission: helping everyday gamblers understand gambling probability and statistics without needing a mathematics degree.

His columns appeared on Casino City Times and were syndicated to newspapers, making him one of the most widely read gambling educators of his era. But what set Krigman apart wasn't just the volume of his work—it was his remarkable ability to translate complex mathematical concepts into plain language that resonated with readers who might have struggled with maths in school.

Making the Abstract Concrete

Krigman specialised in explaining the mechanics of games like craps, baccarat, keno, blackjack, roulette, and video poker. These are games with precisely calculable probabilities, yet they're surrounded by myths, misconceptions, and magical thinking. Krigman's mission was to cut through the fog.

Consider craps, a game that intimidates many casino newcomers with its complex layout and seemingly arcane betting options. Krigman would patiently explain how the probability of rolling a seven (the most common result) stems from simple combinatorics—there are six ways to make seven with two dice (1-6, 2-5, 3-4, 4-3, 5-2, 6-1) out of 36 total possible combinations. Therefore, the probability is 6/36, or 1 in 6. From this foundation, he'd build up to more complex concepts like why Pass Line bets have a house edge of 1.41% and why taking Odds behind your Pass bet is mathematically the best proposition in the casino.

His column "Count the Ways of Craps, and You'll Understand the Whys" exemplified this approach—by teaching readers to enumerate possibilities, he gave them the tools to understand probability intuitively rather than simply memorising statistics.

The House Edge Explained

One of Krigman's most valuable contributions was demystifying the concept of house edge—the mathematical advantage casinos build into every game. Many players vaguely understand that "the house always wins," but Krigman explained precisely how and why, and more importantly, what it meant for their actual gambling sessions.

He'd explain that a 5% house edge doesn't mean you'll lose $5 for every $100 you bet—it means that on average, over many thousands of bets, your expected loss approaches that figure. In any individual session, volatility (variance) creates the swings that make gambling exciting. You might win big despite the house edge, or lose more than the edge would predict. Understanding this distinction between short-term results and long-term expectations was central to Krigman's teaching.

His article "Why Your Gambling Goals May Defy What the Math Says To Expect" captured this perfectly—acknowledging that real gambling sessions don't always behave according to statistical expectations, especially in the short run.

Risk of Ruin and Bankroll Management

Krigman was particularly insightful on the topic of "risk of ruin"—the probability that a gambler with a given bankroll will go broke before achieving a win goal. This wasn't just abstract theory; it had practical implications for anyone planning a casino visit.

He developed tools, including Excel spreadsheets, that allowed players to calculate their risk of ruin based on their bankroll, bet size, and the game's edge and volatility. This work was widely cited and used by both casual players and serious gambling analysts. His columns on bankroll management taught players how to size their bets appropriately, understanding that aggressive betting might offer chances at bigger wins but dramatically increased the likelihood of going bust.

Articles like "How Bet Size and Decision Rate Affect Your Gambling Prospects" and "Playing It Smart: How to Size Up Your Bankroll" became essential reading for anyone wanting to gamble responsibly and intelligently.

Betting Systems: Hope and Reality

Where many gambling writers either promoted betting systems or dismissed them with contempt, Krigman took a more nuanced approach. He explained exactly why progressive betting systems like the Martingale couldn't overcome the house edge—not because they were inherently foolish, but because mathematics simply doesn't work that way.

His column "How Betting Progressions Affect Likely Bankroll Swings" demonstrated that while betting systems can't change your long-term expectation, they do alter the distribution of possible outcomes. Some systems reduce volatility and extend playing time; others increase variance in pursuit of unlikely big wins. Neither approach changes the fundamental mathematical relationship between player and house, but understanding the trade-offs helps players make informed choices.

Krigman respected his readers enough to explain the mathematics rigorously while acknowledging that different players might rationally choose different approaches based on their goals—whether maximising entertainment time, chasing a big score, or something in between.

Volatility: The Double-Edged Sword

One of Krigman's most important contributions was explaining volatility (variance) and its profound impact on gambling outcomes. In columns like "Is Volatility the Secret of Winning Big?" and "How Does Volatility Affect Your Chances of Gambling Success?", he explored how games with higher variance create both greater risks and greater opportunities.

A high-volatility game like keno might offer slim chances of winning but massive payouts when you do. A low-volatility game like baccarat produces steadier, more predictable results. Neither is inherently "better"—they suit different gambling goals and temperaments. Krigman helped readers understand that choosing games based on edge alone missed half the picture.

He also explained how volatility interacts with bankroll requirements. Playing a high-variance game requires more bankroll to avoid ruin, even if the house edge is acceptable. This practical insight helped countless players avoid the common mistake of sitting down at a game with insufficient funds to weather the inevitable downswings.

A Unique Writing Style

What made Krigman's columns particularly engaging was his conversational yet precise writing style. He never talked down to readers, but he also never glossed over the mathematics. He used analogies, examples, and plain language without sacrificing accuracy.

Consider his treatment of the gambler's fallacy—the mistaken belief that past results influence future independent events. Rather than simply declaring it wrong, Krigman explained why our brains naturally see patterns in randomness, why the law of large numbers doesn't mean that "things even out" in the short term, and how these misconceptions lead to poor betting decisions. His column "Why Faith in the Law of Averages Is Misplaced" became a classic reference on this topic.

Krigman also occasionally injected gentle humour into his work, understanding that gambling should ultimately be entertainment. His writing acknowledged the emotional dimension of gambling while insisting that informed choices beat ignorant hope.

Specific Game Strategies

Krigman provided detailed strategy advice across the casino spectrum:

Blackjack: He explained Basic Strategy—the mathematically optimal way to play every hand—while also addressing common questions like "Why should I double down on 11 against a dealer's 10?" or "What's so bad about splitting tens?" His columns on blackjack were thorough yet accessible, helping players understand not just what to do, but why.

Craps: Krigman was particularly skilled at explaining craps, often considered the most intimidating casino game. He covered everything from why you can't take back a Pass Line bet (because you gain an advantage after the come-out roll) to the mathematics of Odds bets (which carry no house edge at all) to the complex question of whether Don't Pass is truly superior to Pass (it is, but barely).

Video Poker: He helped players understand pay tables, explaining how seemingly small differences—like 9/6 versus 8/5 Jacks or Better—dramatically affected return percentages. His work made video poker strategy accessible to players who might otherwise have been intimidated by the mathematical analysis required.

Keno: While most gambling experts simply advise avoiding keno due to its high house edge, Krigman took a more balanced view in columns like "Should You Avoid Keno Just Because the Gurus Rail Against It?" He acknowledged the poor odds while recognising that some players might rationally choose the game for its slow pace, social atmosphere, or chance at huge payouts.

The Legacy

Alan Krigman passed away in October 2013, but his work continues to influence how gamblers think about casino games. His archive of nearly 950 articles remains online, a testament to decades of patient education. His Excel tools for calculating risk of ruin are still used and circulated among gambling enthusiasts.

On gambling forums and in online discussions, you'll still see references to "Krigman's work" or citations of his columns when mathematical questions arise. Professional gambling writers and analysts acknowledge his influence, and his approach—rigorous mathematics presented accessibly—became a template for gambling education.

What makes Krigman's legacy particularly valuable is that his work has no expiration date. The mathematics of casino games haven't changed since he wrote about them. His explanations of why certain strategies work, why systems don't overcome the edge, and how probability actually behaves remain as valid today as when he first penned them.

Lessons for Australian Gamblers

For Australian readers, Krigman's insights translate directly to local casinos and online gambling. The mathematics of blackjack, roulette, baccarat, and craps are identical whether you're playing in Las Vegas, Macau, or Crown Melbourne. The house edges are the same (though specific rules might vary slightly), and the principles of bankroll management and understanding volatility apply universally.

Krigman's emphasis on informed decision-making resonates particularly well in an era of increasing gambling availability. Whether you're visiting a brick-and-mortar casino or playing online, understanding the mathematical realities behind the games transforms gambling from blind hope into informed entertainment.

His work reminds us that you don't need to be a mathematician to gamble intelligently—you just need someone who can explain the mathematics clearly. And for years, Alan Krigman was that someone for millions of readers.

The Bottom Line

Alan Krigman dedicated his career to a simple proposition: gamblers deserve to understand what they're actually facing when they walk into a casino. He provided that understanding without judgment, without selling systems, and without promising miracles. He simply explained how games work, what the odds really mean, and how players could make informed choices based on their personal goals and circumstances.

In a field often dominated by charlatans selling foolproof systems or cheerleaders for the gambling industry, Krigman was a voice of mathematical integrity and clarity. He made probability theory approachable, statistics meaningful, and mathematics relevant to everyday casino visitors.

His columns weren't about winning big or beating the house—they were about understanding the game you're playing well enough to make rational decisions about how you play it. That might not be as exciting as promises of guaranteed riches, but it's infinitely more valuable.

For anyone who wants to gamble intelligently, Alan Krigman's extensive body of work remains an invaluable resource—proof that mathematics doesn't have to be intimidating, and that understanding the numbers can coexist perfectly well with enjoying the thrill of the game.

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